Friday, 07/23/2010 10:05 AM
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Friday, 07/30/2010 6:45 AM
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 07/30 06:08
Lean Hogs Staged to Open with Mixed Process
Pork futures are set to open on a mixed basis thanks to a residual of buying
interest and late week profit taking. Live and feeder cattle contracts are
also ready to start out with uneven prices based on follow-through selling as
well as short covering.
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Cash Steady w/Thursday Futures: mixed Live Equiv $105.24 -
.71*
Hogs: Cash Steady Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $ 95.52 + .03**
* new formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** new formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The disappointing cash cattle trade seems to be essentially done for the
week. Scattered clean-up business is quite possible, but live and dressed
prices should be the same that surfaced on Wednesday and Thursday (i.e.,
$93/$147-148). Trade volume totals look generally smaller, but maybe that fits
with reduced slaughter plans going forward over the next several weeks. Look
for lives and feeder contracts to open on a mixed basis thanks to a combo of
residual selling and short covering.
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Friday, 07/30/2010 7:55 AM
DTN Early Word Grains 07/30 07:20
Grains Higher at 7:15 a.m. CDT
Corn futures are expected to open 2 to 3 higher as of 7:15 a.m. CDT;
soybeans 5 to 7 higher; wheat 9 to 11 higher.
By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
General Opening Call at 7:!5 a.m. Corn 2 to 3 higher, Soybeans 5 to 7 higher,
Wheat 9 to 11 higher.
7:15 AM e-CBOT Corn 2 1/2 higher (September), Soybeans 7 1/4 higher
(November), Wheat 10 1/2 higher (September).
GENERAL OPENING CALL Corn 2 to 4 higher, Soybeans 4 to 6 higher, Wheat 8 to
10 higher.
6:00 AM e-CBOT Corn 3 higher (September), Soybeans 5 higher (November), Wheat
9 1/2 higher (September). Grain contracts continue to push higher despite a
lack of support from outside markets. Wheat led the way once again with the
Chicago market pushing double-digit gains early Friday morning.
OUTSIDE MARKETS The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30.72 points lower
Thursday at 10,467.16. The overnight session saw the Dow Jones futures trade 41
points lower indicating the market could see continued selling interest Friday.
Asian markets were mostly lower with the Nikkei down 158.72 points at 9,537.30.
European markets were lower. The overnight crude oil market was $.57 lower at
$77.79. Brent crude was $.52 lower at $77.07. The December gold contract was
$2.80 higher at $1,174.00 while the U.S. dollar index is 0.282 higher at
81.918. Soybeans at the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange were higher while the
Malaysian palm oil market was mostly higher.
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Friday, 07/30/2010 12:20 PM
DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/30 11:44
All Grains Higher at Midday
The upside push continues with wheat leading the way higher due to world
production concerns.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market indices are around unchanged at midday. The interest
rate products are strongly higher. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are
mixed. Cattle are higher, feeders lower and hogs are higher. Precious metals
are higher with gold up $9.
GENERAL COMMENTS
CORN
Corn trade is 6 to 7 higher at midday; with a flat tone following our early
strength. The chart areas of focus are the 200-day moving average up at $4.02
on the December contract; we have touched this area, but back below it by a few
cents. So the jury is still out as to whether or not we'll take a run at the
stops above this level before the day is over. Chart support down at the $3.83
which is the 100-day moving average. The high today is a penny away from 60
cents above the lows at the end of June. Crop weather has been good
domestically, which should limit further upside. The world weather items
continue to provide uncertainty to the marketplace and the trade believes our
export potential is very good for the year ahead. Corn sales were in line with
expectations, but not necessarily bullish. China was not listed as a buyer of
new or old crop on the weekly numbers. Absent of a weather change traders look
for a flat type of afternoon trade and we may make a run at the buy stops above
our current daily high.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 10 to 15 higher at midday due to follow-through buying and
spillover support from the wheat market. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and bean oil
has recovered from early weakness. Aug. 1 delivery notice had no meal
deliveries and 3,014 soy oil deliveries, which had oil lower initially on the
day. We have moved to a new high for the move on November beans which inched
above $10. This is a positive chart move, but we have backed off the highs by
about a nickel at midday. Without a domestic weather concern additional buying
interest above $10 may be light, but for now we need to be concerned about
short covering.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 19-25 higher at midday. The upward momentum has stalled, but
we have not seen any major profit taking. Trade the rest of the session should
be choppy with both profit-taking and short-covering. This has been an
incredible move during harvest with good U.S. yields. September Chicago is
$1.75 above the June close, and now $2.10 above the June low. Global production
concerns will continue to support trade on the break, but short covering could
support the market in regard to this afternoon into Monday. It remains
difficult to point out chart resistance levels. The market needs to believe we
have priced-in the bullish news before bigger long-profit-taking sets in.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.
(SK)
Copyright 2010 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
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Friday, 07/30/2010 12:35 PM
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/30 11:59
Lean Hog Futures Hold Early Gains
Moderate gains are holding in the lean hog and live cattle markets as
traders prepare positions for week and month end. The softness in the boxed
beef trade and morning cash hog prices has not affected trader interest so far.
By Rick Kment
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures are mostly higher at midday as moderate to strong buying
support is stepping into the market before the week and month end. Despite
pressure in both the wholesale beef market and midday live hog price levels,
traders remain optimistic Friday morning. Corn futures are sharply higher
following additional support in the wheat market. September corn futures are 9
1/4 cent higher at midday. Stock markets are lower in a narrow range. The Dow
Jones is 14 points lower while Nasdaq is up 3 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Light end-of-week buying has helped to draw prices higher at midday with
August contracts 2 cents higher, although most actively traded October through
February contracts are holding 37 to 40 cent gains. The shock of lower cattle
trade has been worked through the futures market, with traders now focusing on
potential market support early next week. Cash markets are in clean up stages
with light sales in Texas at $93 per cwt, although all other areas are quiet
following the lower price levels. Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, falling 49
cents per cwt (select) and $1.88 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 238
total loads reported (91 loads of choice cuts, 51 loads of select cuts, 51
loads of trimmings, 46 loads of coarse grinds).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle are mixed with nearby contracts holding onto light to moderate
losses, due to sharply higher corn prices as well as expectations that the beef
market could continue to weaken following the softness in both cash and
wholesale beef prices. Trade is expected to remain light through the remainder
of the session, but be contained in a narrow trading range.
LEAN HOGS:
Moderate support is holding through the lean hog futures market with trade
activity sluggish, but optimistic given the sharp rally in grain markets. The
expectation that additional non commercial buying will still flock to the
market at the end of the week is helping to draw increased buying into the
market at midday. Cash prices are lower at midday on a light run of 294 head.
Prices fell $3.13 cents per cwt with a weighted average of $79.57. The trading
range is $76.28 to $81.00 per cwt. Fresh pork trade reported one load of fresh
pork product sold on the midday carlot. Lean hog index for 7/23 is at $80.01 up
98 with a projected two-day index of $80.79 per cwt, up 78.
PORK BELLIES:
The 14-to-16-pound bellies is unreported on the midday carlot report.
Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@telventdtn.com
(SK)
Copyright 2010 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
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Friday, 07/30/2010 3:00 PM
DTN Closing Grain Comments 07/30 14:25
Grains Close Out July Strong
Sharp gains were posted in grains Friday, led once again by the amazing
wheat market. Corn and beans posted bullish technical signals on buying from
both sides of the market, possibly sparking additional noncommercial buying
interest next week.
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Friday, 07/30/2010 3:05 PM
DTN Chart Technical Points 07/30 15:00
DTN FUTURES 10 7/30/10 SLOW STOCHASTIC
PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day
CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D
CBTWT SEP 661.50 624.88 605.22 581.88 515.16 86.95 83.10 74.09 93 76 94 91
CBTWT DEC 693.75 656.81 636.53 611.90 544.42 87.74 83.85 74.80 95 80 95 92
KC WT SEP 674.50 641.63 621.81 597.26 535.30 89.02 84.66 75.07 89 80 95 94
KC WT DEC 691.50 658.63 638.92 614.43 552.56 89.03 84.58 74.94 88 81 95 94
MN WT SEP 687.75 653.63 633.67 608.76 557.50 87.94 83.17 73.67 91 83 95 93
MN WT DEC 702.75 669.13 649.81 624.93 573.72 87.97 83.38 73.92 91 83 95 93
CORN SEP 392.75 377.75 375.17 379.54 367.33 64.53 60.60 55.81 79 48 54 56
CORN DEC 406.75 392.06 389.11 392.46 379.11 65.46 61.52 56.62 81 51 58 60
CORN MAR 418.75 404.81 402.06 404.74 391.83 65.75 61.78 56.77 81 49 62 63
OATS SEP 271.00 259.00 256.69 258.61 246.96 65.15 61.43 58.46 92 59 55 40
OATS DEC 284.00 271.44 267.31 267.03 252.18 70.21 65.97 61.14 99 69 66 52
BEANS AUG1052.501021.941016.221007.04 963.71 78.92 75.10 66.52 86 55 86 84
BEANS SEP1012.00 990.69 988.47 980.85 943.56 74.27 70.72 63.17 82 52 81 79
BEANS NOV1005.00 984.13 979.44 969.96 935.22 75.13 71.07 63.39 83 55 85 83
S MEAL AUG 310.90 303.13 301.18 301.07 286.15 69.79 67.28 62.56 86 61 70 67
S MEAL SEP 297.90 291.63 290.63 290.21 276.76 67.35 65.03 60.67 86 59 67 64
B OIL AUG 39.83 39.13 38.88 38.33 37.73 73.60 68.03 58.99 87 67 92 90
B OIL SEP 39.96 39.27 39.03 38.49 37.91 74.09 68.20 58.93 86 65 91 90
CATTLE AUG 92.65 92.48 92.88 92.15 90.25 57.02 57.83 54.99 28 23 72 81
CATTLE OCT 94.60 94.05 94.28 93.48 91.62 62.32 61.26 56.52 45 33 77 83
FEEDER AUG 113.72 114.22 114.56 114.01 112.14 45.66 51.66 53.96 19 30 60 79
FEEDER SEP 114.20 114.61 114.73 114.19 112.18 50.85 54.78 55.28 21 38 70 84
HOGS AUG 85.82 84.07 82.85 81.77 81.91 71.50 65.01 57.56 96 84 86 71
HOGS OCT 79.03 77.57 76.59 75.88 75.32 70.02 64.86 59.00 93 78 84 73
BELLY AUG 103.50 102.38 101.78 99.40 97.71 67.26 66.10 63.73 82 66 81 81
BELLY FEB 101.20 100.68 100.41 100.21 100.38 93.49 88.21 85.93 100 100100 76
COTTON OCT 82.36 81.26 80.30 79.22 78.60 68.46 64.16 59.19 70 79 91 82
COTTON DEC 78.76 77.17 75.80 74.92 76.67 73.33 64.92 56.96 83 85 73 49
RICE SEP 10.56 10.21 10.14 10.03 10.44 68.20 59.35 47.99 72 52 76 64
RICE NOV 10.82 10.47 10.40 10.29 10.65 68.70 60.10 48.62 74 50 77 68
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Friday, 07/30/2010 4:10 PM
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 07/30/10
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE DTN WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK T0 DATE: 17,745
STEERS No trade reported
HEIFERS No trade reported
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,141 WEEK TO DATE: 45,122
STEERS 240 147.00-150.00 147.00-150.00 148.20
HEIFERS 88 147.00-147.00 147.00-147.00 147.00
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,033 WEEK TO DATE: 12,221
STEERS 994 93.00-93.00 93.00-93.00 93.00
HEIFERS No trade reported
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 25 WEEK TO DATE: 5,266
STEERS 25 93.00-93.00 93.00-93.00 93.00
HEIFERS No trade reported
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,438 WEEK TO DATE: 21,435
STEERS 22 146.00-146.00 146.00-146.00 146.00
HEIFERS 84 146.00-146.00 146.00-146.00 146.00
COMMENTS: Just a little clean up and carry over trade reported today.
5 AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $92.83(1324) HIDE & OFFAL: $10.69 +.16
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HEAD
LIVE BASED 139.89 130.66 87,565
BOX BASED 139.83 133.02 84,795
AVE INDEX 139.86 -1.95 131.84 -1.53 172,360
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
153.83 -1.56 145.02 - .72
111.81 LDS CH CUTS / 64.71 LDS SEL CUTS / 16.14 LDS TRIM / 56.62 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Weak/lower on light-moderate demand & offerings
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 07/23 $152.07 +1.54
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $131.42 -.57
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 53.04 lds / Lr on lt dem & lt-mod offers
90% TRIM: 25 lds / WT AVG: $165.66 / Steady/weak
*ABCDE AFTER QUOTE REPRESENTS DAYS SINCE LAST REPORTED MARKET TEST*.
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 129(642) WK AGO 129(645) YR AGO 115(619) MIX: THR SH104/CB25
SAT 12(654) WK AGO 21(666) YR AGO 19(639)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS:.
****NOTE: The complete data set used to compile the Weekly Canadian Cattle
Imports report is not available from APHIS. We will release that information
as soon it is made available to us.****.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week ending: 06/19/10 1,971 11,503
Week ending: 06/12/10 3,163 10,484
Change from previous week: -1,192 +1,019
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Friday, 07/30/2010 4:45 PM
DTN Closing Livestock Comments 07/30 16:09
Live Cattle Land Late-Week Bounce
Live futures closed significantly higher, supported by late short-covering,
technical buying, and the triggering of stops. Lean hogs enjoyed another round
of bullish support with most contracts setting new contract highs for the
second consecutive week.
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
According to the closing report, the Iowa hog base is $1.01 lower compared
with the Prior Day settlement ($75.00-83.78), weighted average $81.69). Beside
scattered sales in parts of Texas at $93 (i.e., steady with yesterday but $2
lower than last week), the cash cattle trade was not tested in the late rounds.
From Friday to Friday, meat futures scored the following changes: August LC,
off 77; October LC, off 12; August FC, off 145; September FC, off 97; August
LH, up 260; October LH, up 200; August PB, unch; February PB, up 70. Corn
futures jumped sharply higher with nearbys surging as much as 13 cents thanks
to the runaway wheat market. For the week, spot September moved 21 1/2 cents
higher. The Commerce Department said the GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.4
percent in the second quarter, less than the 2.5 percent economists polled by
Thomson Reuters had forecast. The stock market initially broke hard on the news
but spent most of the session in recovery mode. The Dow closed off 1 point with
the Nasdaq up 3.
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