Wednesday, 03/10/2010 3:25 PM
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 6:00 AM
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 03/11 05:26
Cattle Futures Anticipated to Open Mixed
Live and feeder contracts should start out with uneven prices, scrambled by
a combination of follow-through selling and short-covering. The pork complex is
also likely to lack a consistent trend on the opening thanks to bear-spreading
and profit-taking.
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Cash Steady-$1 HR Futures Mixed Live Equiv $104.12 + .08*
Hogs: Cash Steady Futures Mixed Lean Equiv $80.07 - .67**
* new formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** new formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle buying interest may slowly begin to improve through the day. It's
possible that we could see light to moderate business here and there, but only
if futures continue to slide and packers bid steady money. Assuming the board
stabilizes or recovers this morning, significant cash trading will probably be
delayed until Friday. In other words, asking prices are $94 in the South and
$148-plus until further notice. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed
basis linked to a combo of spillover selling and pre-cash covering.
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 7:55 AM
DTN Early Word Grains 03/11 07:19
Grains Mostly Lower at 7:15 a.m. CST
Corn futures are expected to open steady to 1 lower as of 7:15 a.m. CST;
soybeans 3 to 5 lower; wheat 1 to 2 lower.
By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
General Opening Call at 7:15 a.m. CST: Corn steady to 1 lower, Soybeans 3 to 5
lower, Wheat 1 to 2 lower.
7:15 AM e-CBOT: Corn 1 lower (May), Soybeans 4 1/4 lower (May), Wheat 1 3/4
lower (May).
GENERAL OPENING CALL at 6 a.m. CST Corn steady to 1 lower, Soybeans 3 to 4
lower, Wheat 1 to 2 lower.
6:00 AM e-CBOT Corn 1/2 lower (May), Soybeans 3 1/2 lower (May), Wheat 1 1/2
lower (May). Light selling was seen in most of the grain markets overnight with
only corn posting fractional gains early Thursday morning. Outside markets were
also mixed in quiet trade.
OUTSIDE MARKETS The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.95 points higher
Wednesday at 10,567.33. The overnight session saw the Dow Jones futures trade 5
point lower, indicating the market could see light selling interest early
Thursday. Asian markets were mixed with the Nikkei up 101.03 points. European
markets were mostly lower. The overnight crude oil market was $.04 lower at
$82.05 while Brent crude was $.13 lower at $80.35. The April gold contract was
$2.20 lower at $1,105.90 while the U.S. dollar index is 0.050 lower at 80.395.
Soybeans at the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange were lower while the
Malaysian palm oil market was also lower.
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 12:25 PM
DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/11 11:52
All Grains Lower at Midday
Beans are sharply lower at midday which has corn and wheat lightly lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY
The U.S. stock market indices are steady. The interest rate products are
lower. The dollar index is lightly lower. Energies are lightly lower with crude
down 25. Cattle are mixed and hogs are lower. Precious metals are lower with
gold down $1.
GENERAL COMMENTS
CORN
Corn trade is 1 to 2 lower at midday due to spillover pressure from the bean
market. The USDA supply and demand report was neutral to negative yesterday,
which should continue to keep market longs on the sidelines. The next major
news item will be the March 31 planting intentions report. Early expectations
are calling for a 90-million-acre planted-corn number versus the USDA Outlook
number of 89 million. The big profitability of cotton may pull more acres than
originally expected, and the weather over the next two or three weeks will
continue to promote uncertainty in regard to planted acreage. This has some
analysts backing down from the 91-million-acre number the trade was hearing a
couple of weeks ago. Fresh sellers will likely remain hesitant to take on short
positions until we get through the spring weather market; we could still print
a new low if the outsides don't hold up but downside should be limited. There
were rumors last week that Abengoa could be shutting down several ethanol
facilities. Ethanol margins have diminished over the last two weeks, which will
continue to be a concern, but Abengoa confirmed that there are no plans to
close any plants and that they are experiencing no problems with quality
issues. The weekly export sales were reported at 338,600 tons of old crop and
only 300 tons of new crop; combined they were below expectations.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is sharply lower at midday, down 23 in the old crop contracts
and new crop is down 14 to 16. Meal is $6 to $7 lower and oil is down 60 at
midday. There was some short covering yesterday as traders moved to the
sidelines following the neutral report. The lack of follow-through buying
overnight and today suggests that this may have just been panic buying by weak
shorts. The chart remains negative; we are near the low side of our recent
range, but a close below $9.18 on the new crop November contract could promote
a test of the February low at $9. I fear additional selling interest could
develop this month due to the South American harvest and likely additional U.S.
acreage that will give us a negative new crop balance sheet once it comes out.
Early expectations ahead of the March 31 planting intention report are looking
for 78.5 million acres of planted beans versus the 77-million number from the
USDA outlook conference. This number could still grow if the wet weather
persists over the next several weeks and corn planting is delayed. The weekly
export sales were very poor with net cancellations of 115,800 tons. New crop
sales were 65,100 tons, but the big Chinese cancellations have been noted for
the sharp decline in price today. If this is the start of a trend, then it will
be very difficult for beans to rally near-term.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 2 to 4 lower at midday. The report yesterday was more
significant for wheat than either corn or beans. The U.S. carryover at 1.001
billion bushels is historically very bearish and supply should remain
comfortable over the course of this year. We still have the potential weather
markets to move through which will likely limit downside over the next several
weeks, but demand will need to pick up before we can see sustainable rallies.
U.S. wheat remains non competitive in the global export market with Black Sea
wheat still trading at a $25-$60 discounts. There have been some rumors of
feedlots exploring the usage of feed wheat due to some quality issues with
corn, but this will likely not be on a large-enough scale to offset the
carryover of 1 billion bushels. It would also be negative for corn. The weekly
export sales were reported at 407,900 tons of old crop and new crop sales were
40,500 tons. Together, they were near the high side of expectations.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.
(SK)
Copyright 2010 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 12:45 PM
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/11 12:10
Livestock Futures Mixed in Light Trade
Trade remains sluggish through the livestock complex with cattle markets
mixed in very narrow ranges. Lean hogs are working lower with deferred
contracts posting moderate losses.
By Rick Kment
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures are holding mixed in light trade with live cattle futures
from 5 cents higher to 10 cents lower. Lean hogs remain under pressure in
sluggish trade. Corn futures are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 2
1/4 cents lower. Stock markets are lower. The Dow Jones is 7 points lower while
Nasdaq is down 2 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Inactivity in the cattle market seems to be the main trend through the
morning with trade remaining in a tight group. Traders are looking for cash
markets to develop as strong non commercial trade holding current positions.
Cash trade is on the verge of trade, although full trade may hold out until
Friday. Bids of $91 are seen in the South and $144 to $145 through the North
are seen. Asking prices are at $94 in the South and $148 in the North. Beef
cut-outs at midday is lower, falling 44 cents per cwt (select) and 41 cents per
cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 279 total loads reported (136 loads of
choice cuts, 69 loads of select cuts, 17 loads of trimmings, 56 loads of coarse
grinds).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are mixed given a mixed trade in the live cattle
market and inactivity through the corn market Thursday morning. Traders remain
unimpressed with the up-and-down nature of the market over the last couple of
days and for the most part have remained on the sidelines. March contracts are
posting a 2 cent loss, while April is 2 cents higher at midday, which pretty
much instills a sense that the market is going nowhere fast.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures have remained slightly lower through much of the morning,
but at midday renewed pressure has developed, pushing nearby contracts further
lower as April is down 65 cents per cwt while June and July contracts are
posting 45 to 50 cent losses. The market remains oversold and well above
support so this light sell-off is not unexpected at all given the structure of
the market. Cash prices are lower at midday on a moderate run of 1,537 head.
Prices lost $3.42 per cwt with a weighted average of $70.90. The trading range
is $63.00 to $75.28 per cwt. Fresh pork trade reported 11.25 loads on the
midday carlot. Lean hog index for 3/9 is at $74.57 up 83 with a projected
two-day index of $75.00 per cwt, up 43.
PORK BELLIES:
Pork belly futures are untraded at midday with little evidence that trade
will move sharply in either direction through the remainder of the session.
Commercial traders are still holding onto current positions, but the softness
in the lean hog markets do not seem to be drawing much pressure into the market
as traders look for moderate to strong demand developing through the summer.
The 14-to-16-pound product was untested on the midday carlot.
Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@telventdtn.com
(SK)
Copyright 2010 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 2:35 PM
DTN Closing Grain Comments 03/11 14:00
Soybeans Sink on Bearish Export News
A bearish weekly export sales report Thursday seemed to tip soybean's cart
as the market quickly erased Wednesday's gains. The other grains were
relatively quiet throughout the session.
By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 3:05 PM
DTN Chart Technical Points 03/11 15:00
DTN FUTURES 10 3/11/10 SLOW STOCHASTIC
PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day
CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D
CBTWT MAR 468.50 475.56 484.81 490.40 499.11 35.68 39.56 42.98 2 2 12 40
CBTWT MAY 478.75 486.19 496.14 503.07 512.47 34.02 38.31 42.32 7 7 9 34
KC WT MAR 482.50 487.94 494.75 498.82 505.39 37.61 41.22 44.11 0 2 13 37
KC WT MAY 489.50 495.00 502.78 508.29 516.19 35.76 39.78 43.30 7 7 9 29
MN WT MAR 496.50 500.88 505.75 508.35 516.23 40.10 42.59 44.48 0 2 16 35
MN WT MAY 504.50 508.94 514.31 518.64 527.33 37.60 40.82 43.57 8 9 10 25
CORN MAR 355.50 358.56 365.33 366.51 370.56 35.04 39.50 43.60 7 6 26 52
CORN MAY 365.25 368.69 375.92 377.49 381.57 33.88 38.64 43.25 10 8 24 50
CORN JUL 376.25 379.69 386.86 388.32 391.66 34.46 39.17 43.62 8 7 25 52
OATS MAR 211.50 215.75 218.31 223.39 232.36 21.23 27.12 35.22 0 8 1 4
OATS MAY 216.50 221.75 225.53 231.51 240.88 16.66 23.69 33.51 0 4 2 8
BEANS MAR 925.50 939.88 943.11 947.78 951.96 38.11 40.97 43.44 40 41 33 45
BEANS MAY 930.50 946.00 950.92 956.01 960.35 35.94 39.44 42.88 35 35 30 44
BEANS JUL 939.00 954.13 958.86 963.63 967.36 35.88 39.52 43.04 35 36 31 46
S MEAL MAR 249.60 256.70 261.18 269.41 277.89 17.97 24.65 34.58 22 23 8 8
S MEAL MAY 252.60 257.30 260.98 266.69 273.03 23.46 29.40 37.15 24 23 9 14
B OIL MAR 39.82 40.11 39.90 39.34 38.38 56.12 56.77 54.39 66 72 88 91
B OIL MAY 40.11 40.43 40.25 39.74 38.81 54.75 55.77 53.96 65 71 86 89
CATTLE APR 93.82 94.07 93.30 92.87 91.23 65.19 64.53 61.33 70 80 86 86
CATTLE JUN 91.95 92.07 91.65 91.06 89.24 67.52 68.18 65.45 61 75 90 94
FEEDER MAR 101.93 102.20 102.28 101.91 99.85 55.03 58.88 59.07 22 39 81 87
FEEDER APR 105.10 105.54 105.04 103.96 101.40 64.19 65.55 63.28 42 64 87 92
HOGS APR 71.88 72.41 72.79 71.53 70.55 51.62 54.22 54.52 17 26 77 85
HOGS MAY 77.25 78.01 78.34 77.39 75.81 48.13 52.97 55.53 32 53 84 92
BELLY MAR 91.00 92.38 93.01 89.36 86.46 54.53 57.37 56.57 18 21 81 88
BELLY MAY 92.50 92.58 93.43 90.44 88.57 59.26 59.70 57.15 29 21 66 74
COTTON MAY 78.77 80.34 81.52 80.30 75.56 43.86 50.96 54.81 11 24 72 81
COTTON JUL 79.28 80.77 81.83 80.29 76.11 45.59 51.81 55.02 11 30 77 85
RICE MAR 12.18 12.52 12.89 13.25 13.85 16.47 22.11 31.74 4 4 0 1
RICE MAY 12.40 12.76 13.14 13.54 14.14 15.85 21.41 31.23 4 4 1 2
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 4:00 PM
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 03/11/10
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE DTN WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 72 WEEK T0 DATE: 165
STEERS No trade reported
HEIFERS No live trade reported
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 3,870 WEEK TO DATE: 5,464
STEERS 2,587 144.00-146.00 144.00-146.00 145.64
HEIFERS 596 144.00-146.00 144.00-146.00 144.89
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 351
STEERS No trade reported
HEIFERS No trade reported
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 936 WEEK TO DATE: 936
STEERS 320 145.00-145.00 145.00-145.00 145.00
HEIFERS 616 145.00-145.00 145.00-145.00 145.00
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 9,860 WEEK TO DATE: 14,957
STEERS 5,085 144.00-146.00 144.00-146.00 144.61
HEIFERS 725 144.00-146.00 144.00-146.00 144.79
COMMENTS: A light trade was reported in parts of the North today, steady to
$2 higher than last week
5 AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $81.58(1402) HIDE & OFFAL: $10.01 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HEAD
LIVE BASED 135.69 132.93 104,150
BOX BASED 137.07 136.37 88,777
AVE INDEX 136.38 - .23 134.65 - .43 192,927
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
149.07 - .42 148.37 - .83
144.90 LDS CH CUTS / 52.28 LDS SEL CUTS / 13.34 LDS TRIM / 28.34 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Gen stdy on lt-mod dem & offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 03/05 $149.89 +1.33
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $121.52 +.17
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 81.96 lds / Gen stdy on lt-mod dem & offers
90% TRIM: 52 lds / WT AVG: $156.90 / Unevenly steady
*ABCDE AFTER QUOTE REPRESENTS DAYS SINCE LAST REPORTED MARKET TEST*.
FI KILL(WTD) THUR 122(485) WK AGO 126(488) YR AGO 117(482) MIX: WED SH94/CB26
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS:.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week ending: 02/27/10 4,061 20,471
Week ending: 02/20/10 6,372 18,661
Change from previous week: -2,311 +1,810
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Thursday, 03/11/2010 5:20 PM
DTN Closing Livestock Comments 03/11 16:47
Pork Complex Sinks Thanks To Defensive Fundamentals
Lean and belly contracts retreated in the face of lower cash sales and poor
processing margins. Live cattle futures settled mixed while their feeder
counterparts finished mostly higher.
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Light trading was reported in parts of the northern tier of feeding country.
A few dressed steers and heifers sold at $145-146, $1-2 higher than last week.
Most Northern producers rejected firm bids, holding for $147 or better. The
South was extremely quiet with few bids noted in the face of $94 asking prices.
According to the closing report, the Iowa hog base $2.81 lower compared with
the prior day settlement ($63.00-73.25, weighted average $71.51). The corn
market finished fractionally mixed after trading lower though most of the
session. A rally in financial stocks boosted a slow rally for the third day.
The Dow finished 44 points higher and the Nasdaq advanced by 9.
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